2022 State of Origin Game 3 Expert Tips & Predictions

We have expert betting tips for State of Origin Game 3 between the New South Wales Blues and Queensland Maroons.

It’s all to play for in Queensland following the Blues Game 2 victory. It was a one-sided affair, so the Queenslanders need to fight back as underdogs.

They love playing as the underdog, so punters could get value in the State of Origin Game 3 decider on Wednesday.

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Queensland Maroons vs. New South Wales Blues Game 3 Betting Predictions

We fancied the Queensland Maroons to win Game 1 and they didn’t let us down. However, we made the mistake of doubling down for Game 2 despite them missing a few key players.

With the Maroons back to full health for the decider, we’re sticking with him at the value odds. Bookmakers have them at $2.25 despite playing at home, which is an excellent opportunity for punters to cash in.

There are two things we know about the Maroons; they love playing at home and they love being the underdog. Combine these two factors and the $2.25 is a generous price, despite being thumped in Perth.

Playing at home has a much better feel for Queensland and we can’t find any weak links in the squad. Cameron Munster and Daly Cherry-Evans have been playing outstandingly in the halves and the forward pack has been bolstered.

We’re not discounting the chances of New South Wales, which was slick in Game 2. The Blues were down early but put the Maroons to the sword either side of half time and they never looked back.

If Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai have big performances again, along with former Panther Matt Burton, the Blues could justify their $1.65 price. However, we think there is much better value with the home side in a position they have thrived in over the last 20 years.

Bet: Queensland Maroons @ $2.25 Bet @ Neds

State of Origin Game 3 teams and first try scorer predictions

Below are the confirmed teams for State of Origin Game 3.

Queensland Maroons:

  1. Kayln Ponga
  2. Selwyn Cobbo
  3. Valentine Holmes
  4. Dane Gagai
  5. Murray Taulagi
  6. Cameron Munster
  7. Daly Cherry-Evans
  8. Lindsay Collins
  9. Ben Hunt
  10. Josh Papalii
  11. Kurt Capewell
  12. Jeremiah Nanai
  13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
  14. Harry Grant
  15. Jai Arrow
  16. Patrick Carrigan
  17. Tom Gilbert

New South Wales Blues:

  1. James Tedesco
  2. Brian To’o
  3. Matt Burton
  4. Stephen Crichton
  5. Daniel Tupou
  6. Jarome Luai
  7. Nathan Cleary
  8. Jordan McLean
  9. Apisai Koroisau
  10. Jake Trbojevic
  11. Cameron Murray
  12. Liam Martin
  13. Isaah Yeo
  14. Damien Cook
  15. Angus Crichton
  16. Junior Paulo
  17. Siosifa Talakai

We think the Maroons get off to a fast start on Wednesday and we’re looking at Valentine Holmes to get them started.

Holmes has been in excellent form for the Maroons this season and his power running has caused the Blues plenty of troubles. He is paying $15 to score the first try, so there is plenty of market confidence with the North Queenslander.

We also like Jai Arrow at $23. The forward could crash over close to the line and he’s a mobile player, so he could put on some fancy footwork and score at big odds.

For the Blues, we’re going with Brian To’o. He hasn’t scored as many tries this season as usual but he’s starting to get warm. He knows what it’s like to play outside the Panthers’ halves pairing and he’s the $9.75 favourite in first try scorer markets for a reason.

He’s a good saver bet and he’s $2.15 to score at any time, which is also good value.

Bet: Valentine Holmes @ $15 Bet @ Neds


Once again, all odds are with Neds – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. You can join Neds by clicking HERE.

Daryl Curnow

About the Author: Daryl Curnow

After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA – English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.
Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 – with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports. Daryl’s tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he’s not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.

Author: Violet Wells